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Hello! As we say adieu to 2023, the data is in for November. Depsite major headwinds of seasonality and high interest rates, the Denver metro real estate market did see activity and average sales price essentially holding steady when looking across both detached and attached homes. Single family detached homes are doing slightly better year over year than attached homes in terms of selling at or over asking price, average sold price and percent of homes under contract during the first week of being listing. For both home types, the average days on market crept up vs last year, which makes sense due to higher interest rates seen in October. Since this data was finalized, the Fed has met and agreed to hold rates steady, which effects the 10 year yield and is what ultimately drives mortgage interest rates. With this hold steady news, and hints of even lowering the fed rate multiple times come 2024, interest rates for mortgages have actually dropped below 7%, down from rates hovering around 8% in October. This means buyers who have been priced out of homeownership at higher rates or have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop will now be entering the hopeful homebuyer pool. Current homeowners will eventually feel comfortable enough to trade in their sub-4% rate for their dream home or other geographies, loosening up the strangle hold on inventory that has been gumming up the market in 2023. If you're looking to buy or sell, 2024 could be the year for you. We adeptly help guide sellers and buyers in hot, cool or "just-right" real estate markets. We were successful agents before the frenzied market in 2020-2022, had a great 2023 despite high interest rates and look forward to a 2024 where we can help sellers and buyers accomplish their goals in real estate as conditions shift yet again. Have a great end to 2023 and see you next year!
Read More Pumpkin Spicy Real Estate Data!
Housing data for September 2023 was a bit spicy, just like the Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL) that is so prevelant this time of year! Detached single family homes fared better than attached, with more selling for over asking price than a year ago, the average sales price increasing to $770,000 (up 3.6% from 2022) and even 7.3% more homes going under contract within the first week of being on the market. Attached homes, such as townhomes and condos, were down in these categories from last year, but just barely. So while yes, down since 2022, activity and pricing is essentially holding steady when you look at the numbers. However, both housing types, on average, did sit on the market a little longer than a year ago - 7.4% longer at 29 days for detached homes and almost 35% longer at 31 days for attached homes. Sellers must be patient and buyers finally have a little bit of time to make a decision. That said, the fact that almost 40% of homes in either category do tend to go under contract within the first week, buyers and sellers both should be aware that the good ones - well priced, staged and maintained - go fast! Wondering what's happening in your zip code or neighborhood? Reach out to us, your personal RE Data Barristas!
Read More66% of Homebuyers Waiting for Rates to Drop
Hearing a lot lately about how homebuyers are waiting until rates drop to buy. According to U.S. News in April 2023, that number is 66% of homebuyers! Sure, you could do that. But before you put the emergency brake on your homeownership goals, take a real look at the numbers and understand what waiting means in real terms. This post is a start, but connect with a lender, shore up your budget, save for downpayment. If and when your situation makes sense to buy, you should think about going for it. Waiting may make sense for you. But it also may actually cost you money on a monthly basis and long-term basis. It can also cost you in negotiation power. When there is intense buyer competition, buyers have to give up more just to get their offer accepted and it becomes harder to negotiate along the way if something comes up with inspection, for example. So, don't assume a lower rate will equal a better situation for you as a buyer. Happy to walk and talk you through some scenarios if you're curious and can connect you to a lender or two to chat with about your particulat situation. Knowledge is power.
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March 23, 2023 What is happening in metro Denver’s real estate market these days?? Most real estate data you see lags at least a month, sometimes more. We endeavor to follow local activity weekly and by home price segment, so we can best inform and advise our clients on the market most relevant to their particular situation. We can dig in to information at the zip code level and look at whether it is heating up or cooling down; understand if multiple offers or price drops are more likely; help you decide when the best time is to list, to buy? Below are graphs of weekly data trends for a few stats we track for the greater Denver Metro area. If you like what you see below, and want to know what it means for your localized situation, reach out to us. We love to dig in! What this tells us? Months of Inventory: For the past month, we have been in a very low housing inventory environment, hovering around .8 months of inventory, which means that within just under a month, we’d be likely to sell through all homes currently available for sale. Average Showings/Week: This is the average number of showings an active home can expect to get per week. If a seller is getting less than this/week, they may want to consider if they’re priced correctly. It has been around 4/week for the past 5 weeks, but took a slight dip this last week. Average Showings/Contract: this is the average number of showings before an active home can expect to get an offer. This tells us that buyers are being picky. They are seeing multiple homes before they decide and they are jumping on homes that are in move-in condition. Median Days on Market: for homes that went under contract last week, this is the median number of days they were actively listed for sale. You can see that it has varied slightly from over 1.5 weeks to just about 1 week. For homes priced well and in show-ready condition, in this low-inventory environment, they can expect to get at least the average number of showings a week in order to hit the threshold of total showings to expect a contract to go pending near the median days on market number. What this tells us? Back in 2016-2019, before the unprecedented pandemic housing market, metro Denver had a more balanced housing market, although still slightly tilted toward sellers. Back then, a homeowner had around a 65% chance receive a contract for their home from a buyer within 30 days of going active. During 2020-2022, that average jumped even higher with most going under contract within a few days. It felt like 64% of homes went under contract within the first weekend! But don’t quote us on that… , You can see in the chart above, that we are right around 65% chance currently, but it has declined ever so slightly over the last couple weeks. We will watch to see if that trend continues. Hand in hand with this is the % of balance we see in the market. Being around 14% of a balanced market for the last 5 weeks illustrates that the market is still very compressed with more buyers than homes available, resulting in a market giving sellers the advantage. That said, this can look very differently zip code to zip code and vary by housing pocket. A few months ago, more than 50% of sellers made price reductions before a buyer submitted an acceptable offer. Over the past 5 weeks, we’ve seen this % continually decrease from 31.2% the week ending 2/21 to only 25% for the most recent week ending 3/21. The size of price drops sellers are making is also decreasing, and is currently under 5% on average. DATA SOURCE: Megan Aller of First American Title's weekly update, find her on Instagram @agirlandhergraphs
Read More Cue music...time for a tiny happy dance?
Is it time for a little happy dance? Are we seeing a BLIP or a TREND?? Only time will tell, but the market ticked up a bit over the last 2 weeks. Mortgage applications were up more than 25% (one source said 36%) and the data shows buyers were out and about. Overall numbers are still lower than last year, but activity is increasing noticeably from the doldrums of December. It’s still a great time to be a buyer, if you are pre-approved and can handle your mortgage payment at current rates. Buyers are able to negotiate on price and inspection items and can sometimes also ask for seller concessions to help pay for an interest rate buy down or cover closing costs! The talk is that rates may have peaked. If this is true, rates are likely to go down, which will bring out even more buyers and increase competition, and possibly home prices. According to economist Elliot Eisenberg, an economic slowdown (maybe even a shallow and short recession) is likely sometime in 2023. This usually brings lower rates and higher home prices. NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun mentioned that a mortgage drop from 7% to 6% would mean 5% more households could afford to jump into the buying pool. “In this scenario, the qualifying income to purchase the mid-priced home drops by more than $15,000 to $144,000 from $160,000. This could bring more buyers back to the market boosting demand for housing and increasing market competition.” If you’re still thinking about buying, don’t wait. Now might be the time to capitalize on less competition and softened prices. If you’re a seller, reach out. There are seasonal factors, in addition to this current data, that we can discuss related to your particular situation to help you determine if listing sooner rather than later makes strategic sense. In the meantime, enjoy the data below. EL PASO COUNTY Data from December - note that it doesn't yet capture the increased activity we've seen in January. It will be important to consider next month's report in comparison to this one to understand where things may be heading. Currently, the data points to a buyers market with listings and days of market up considerably (from historically low levels, so an increase is good news) and average price down slightly (3%) and total number of homes also down, contributing to more active listings. DENVER METRO Below is a summary chart of data as of 1/19/23 by housing price segment. This data is for detached, single family homes. If you’re interested in attached homes, we can dig into that too just let us know! Further, we are here to interpret this data with you to help you understand how this relates to you. All of this helps us understand the potential advantages to buying now, what to expect when selling a home in this market and potentially when the best time to list might be. Data points to the market picking up in recent weeks from the sluggish market activity in late 2022. Buyers looking for a deal should take special note of these numbers. If we see multiple weeks of this activity, that may mean this super buyer-friendly market may be reversing. Notable data and changes from 2 weeks ago for Metro Denver: Months of inventory is still super low! All but the $1.5-2mil price point have 1.5 months OR LESS! Average showings per week doubled in almost all price points Median Days on Market for all of Metro Denver is 36 and went down by 6-19 days in almost all price points and basically remained flat in the $1-1.5million range The percentage of sellers making price reductions went down for all price ranges and the odds of going under contract within 30 days increased SUBSTANTIALLY for all We have also included information about notable changes from 2 weeks ago for each price segment below: **Up to $500,000** Average showings per week doubled to 4/week, but showings to contract increased to 17 days – buyers are viewing more homes before making an offer Median days on market are down by a week and a half to 27 from 38, anything sitting for longer than 38 days is ripe for a price change Only 29% vs 49.5% of sellers made a price reduction before going under contract – either sellers are getting better at pricing, or the increased competition is having an impact Odds of being under contract within 30 days increased from 43.4% to 59.9% - those are good odds if you’re a seller in this price range. **$500,000-$1mil** Average showings per week more than doubled from 1.2 to 2.6/week – there are more buyers looking at houses Median days on market are down by about 30% to 41 from 60, this has sped up the sales cycle in this price point by almost 3 weeks. Buyers no longer have the luxury of sitting and waiting to long to offer on a property they like. Only 50% vs 65.1% of sellers made a price reduction before going under contract – this is great news for sellers as the market tips a bit more in their favor Odds of being under contract within 30 days increased from 33% to 50% - those are good odds if you’re a seller in this price range. **$1-1.5mil** Average showings per week more than doubled from 1 to 2.6/week – there are more buyers looking at houses, even at this higher price point. Only 44% vs 61% of sellers made a price reduction before going under contract – this is a big change and great news for sellers as the market tips a bit more in their favor Odds of being under contract within 30 days increased from 27.3% to 44.6% - signs of a strengthening market **$1.5-2.0mil** Average showings per week almost doubled from .7 to 1.3/week – even luxury buyers are coming out of the woodwork This price point had the largest drop of Median Days on market from 72 to 36 -- that's a 50% drop! Only 50% vs 65.1% of sellers made a price reduction before going under contract – this is great news for sellers as the market tips a bit more in their favor Odds of being under contract within 30 days doubled! From 14.2% to 28.8% - still low, but the increase in odds is favorable to sellers and something to watch out for for buyers looking for a deal. As always, reach out with any follow-up questions you might have about buying or selling. You can also read blogs about Real Estate, including (YAY!) more data, on our website (links to the right). Best,Jami & JodiJ2 Home Team
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